The Nigerian dilemma

Caught between the devil and the deep blue sea- The Nigerian Dilemma

In less than a month from now, Nigerians will head to the poll to choose the next person to lead that great country. I love Nigeria, not just because it is the land of my birth or because it is a wealthy country; but also because of its place in prophecy and its strategic position in the committee of Nations.  Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world; we cannot ignore what happens there or pretend not to be concerned. It is important to note that whatever happens in Nigeria invariably affects several things around the globe. That said, my friends, Nigerian politics, as dangerous as it seems, is everyone’s business no matter your nationality, race, profession, location or religion.

  

Due to the ethics of my “profession” I am not supposed to be partisan, but by all means, I am allowed freedom of speech which the Pope recently told us also has its limits. Yes I can express my thoughts without being inordinate, brutal, offensive or unnecessarily forceful. A good leader should never instigate the people against instituted authorities. No matter how bad a leader is, there is a purpose why he/she is in position of leadership and every wise leader knows better than to tear down other leaders. And for followers, it has not been given to any one of us, the right or power to make mutinous statements against any leader. If fellow leaders are not allowed to do certain things against their colleagues, who are you to dance where angels fear to tread!? In dealing with leaders, caution is required.

Key Players 

I see that two key parties and two key players have emerged for the presidential position. The two parties; People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive Congress (APC) have produced two juggernauts. No disrespect to other candidates and parties, but as a semi-neutral observer, I can’t but notice the disparity between these two and the other candidates/parties. I might be wrong, but I believe that the next president of Nigeria will be one of these two. But which of them has what it takes to move the country forward?

Looking at some information about each of them might help the electorate and other observers decide who best suits Nigeria.

APC Candidate:

1)  He is 72 years old (He was born 1942)

2)  A Muslim from Northern Nigeria

3)  Has some form of military training and qualification

4)  Was once a military ruler (for about 2 years)

5)  He ran for presidential election three times before now (2003, 2007 and 2011) and lost in all three.

6)  Has the backing of the Islamic militant group Boko Haram

PDP Candidate:

1)  He is 57 years old (he was born 1957)

2)  A Christian from South south Nigeria

3)  Has a PhD in Zoology

4)  Rose to power by what some have called a twist of fate

5)  Contested and won the 2011 general election against retired Major General Buhari with 59% of the votes

6)  Is the incumbent president and probably has some backing too

My thoughts

In the first place, I think the constitutional cut of age to be Nigerian president, makes it difficult for young people who have the know-how to lead, contest for the position. If someone is younger than forty years and leads a multi-million dollar company with several hundreds of people in his pay roll, what else does he need to prove that he has potential to lead!? Don’t tell me he needs some experience, isn’t there something like on-the-job-training? Oh! Yes I know the answer. Nobody can just come in from anywhere and contest for any elective position; there is a “cabal” that runs the polity and if such a young and rich leader is not part of the clique or does not have a godfather behind him, he has no chance. Strange! Very, very strange! What we have in Nigeria is a weird system that, among other ills,  have left top political offices for only the old, sick and tired people who have little or no ideas left in their frail minds. Rather than have young and intelligent people vie for political positions, we have people who should play advisory roles seeking leadership positions. Some even have ruled and failed and are attempting to come back again. Is it just me or does anybody else think there is clear ploy to keep Nigeria backward?

There are four factors I think the electorate should consider before voting:

1)  Age

2)  History

3)  True democrat

4)  Health condition

Not too long ago, we had a president who could not finish his term due to ill health. I think by now Nigerians have learnt not to vote-in anybody who doesn’t pass the health test. But again, I’m not too sure if the electoral commission performs any such tests and even if they do, can it be trusted? If anyone is contesting for a leadership position, I think the least we expect to know is that his organs should last for the period he intends to serve. Maybe we should not be asking for his health history, but if any of the contestants shows signs of weakness and the electoral commission allows him to contest, then we the people should not allow him get “up there”. Once bitten, twice shy. A sick leader cannot make good decisions. Sounds like stating the obvious, but in a country like Nigeria, where many of the people simulate ignorance, it is important to mention.

Boring History

In high School, History was one of my most boring subjects. No amount of coffee could keep me awake in a history class. But as I grew up, I personally took interest in history because I realized that there is no way anyone can make progress without considering what happened in the past.

I was 7 years old in 1976 when Muritala Mohammad was assassinated. I remember the fear and trepidation which followed the news of the coup and death of the then military ruler. But not too long, we had another military ruler, General Obasanjo. I’m not sure if he did badly during his tenure, but his leadership was not all that excellent; but terminating military rule, lifting the ban on political activities and initiating transition to civilian rule was among the fruits his “first coming” yielded. Not too long a civilian president was installed and history was made-for the first time Nigerians voted in their own president (at least that’s how our fathers felt).

Early one morning, December 1983, we woke up to the news that the civilian president had been overthrown. A military coup had brought down the democratically elected civilian government. Having dismantled the civilian government, Major General Buhari installed himself as the leader of the Supreme Military Council. About two years into his regime, there was another coup d’état. IBB overthrew Buhari and took over power. He ruled Nigeria from 1985 until 1993 when he was forced out of office. When he, IBB, “stepped aside”, he handed over to a so called Interim Government which did not last more than ninety days. The madness continued and culminated in the death of Sanni Abacha.

After all the Military foolishness, it was time to hand over power to the people, as they claimed. Abdusalami, who became Head of State after Abacha’s death and who, as was claimed, had never held public office, announced transition to civilian rule. Although they called it civilian rule, the masses didn’t think it was. That marked the “second coming” of Olusegun Obasanjo. Some believe that the difference between his first and second tenure as president was the military uniform. There was not much of a difference in his modus operandi.

The Catch-22

When the present president came into office, many people began to sing his praise and some even said he was the chosen one who will lead Nigeria to the “promised land”. But after one term and a half, many have come to discover that things are not always as they seem. During the tenure of Goodluck Jonathan, one can point to several things that are not working as they should. Although he claims that the electricity problem has improved, the reality on ground seems to show otherwise. Some claim Boko Haram have wreaked devastation of catastrophic proportions while the president and his government turn a deaf ear to the cry of the people. He still has not been able to help us actualize our dreams and #bringbackourgirls. Security is still a major concern in Nigeria; armed and highway robbery continues to be the order of the day. We can go on and on to list things that President Goodluck Jonathan has not been able to achieve in about seven years in office. Is he the best man for the job? I am not sure.

Like I stated earlier, two parties and candidates have become top dogs and I think the race to Aso Rock is a two horse race. Goodluck Jonathan’s PDP and Muhhamadu Buhari’s APC have emerged as the two major contestants. So if Goodluck is not the best man for the job, is Buhari the right one? Erm! You know, I have a problem saying he is better. If we consider his antecedent (how he overthrew a civilian government and etc.), then we won’t be wrong to assume that he may still have some seditious traits in his system.             

As an old Nigerian adage goes “people don’t become left handed at old age”. I agree. I find it difficult to believe that after many years of going through tough military training and working in a system that does not allow for free speech, one can change at old age and become a democrat. I may be wrong or ignorant, but can someone explain to me, how can someone who overthrew a democratically elected government suddenly wake up and say he now believes in democracy? Can a military dictator ever become a true democrat who understands and follows the rule of law and applies the principles of diplomacy? Will he become left-handed at the age of seventy-two? 

Who will I vote for?

Recently someone sent me a link to listen to a young fairly popular Catholic priest who made an open declaration criticizing the incumbent president and asked Nigerians to vote him out. I took time to listen to his emotion ridden sermon and I cannot but ask “seriously brother Reverend Father?” I really do not have any other comment than that.

When caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, I would rather take my chances with the sea. At least with the sea I have better chances than with the devil. I will swim for as long as I can and hope help comes before I drown or freeze to death. I do not want to dine with the devil not even with the proverbial “long spoon”; evil is evil no matter how nice we try to sugar coat it. Choosing to go with the devil will be selling out my soul. Why offer your soul for safety when you will die anyway!?

Let’s call a spade what it is, Nigeria’s problem cannot be solved within ten years. Let us not be fooled with all the promises these politicians make. Like Nikita Khrushchev puts it “Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers” They can promise to bring heaven down to earth, but when they get there they rarely perform. No individual has what it takes to make Nigeria a “paradise” overnight. Nigeria is work-in-progress and voting for anyone from the first, second, or third republic is only a retrogressive move.

                                                                                     

Since I have to vote, I will vote for 1) the younger 2) the healthier one 3) the one I believe really believes in democracy 4) one whose history does not portend future trouble for Nigeria.

Only God has the power to save, help and transform Nigeria, but in the absence of a clear revelation of who He has chosen to use, let us vote wisely and not allow the events of 1983 repeat itself.